Speculations Rise as Election Outcome Nears
Eric Beiley, Executive Managing Director at The Beiley Group, suggested in a Quartz interview that Bitcoin’s recent surge could signal a Trump victory. However, the real impact will only be revealed once the 47th president is announced.
There’s already plenty of talk about how the cryptocurrency might react under either candidate, with opinions divided over which outcome would favor Bitcoin more. This growing interest from both political sides highlights how deeply crypto has woven itself into the 2024 election narrative.
How Could Bitcoin React to a Trump Victory?
Former President Donald Trump has adopted a “crypto-friendly” stance, integrating digital assets into his campaign. He’s even accepting donations in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, and Solana.
While not all crypto enthusiasts support Trump, many are encouraged by his pro-crypto stance. During a Bitcoin conference, Trump pledged to remove SEC Chair Gary Gensler on his first day in office—a move that appeals to the crypto community, given Gensler’s strict regulatory approach. Furthermore, Trump proposed creating a national Bitcoin reserve, a bold promise that has thrilled many in the sector.
Though details remain scarce, Trump’s crypto-friendly rhetoric has stirred excitement, and a victory could drive a short-term boost in Bitcoin’s price. However, the long-term effects on the crypto market remain uncertain.
Expert Insight
Chandra Duggirala, CEO of the crypto platform Portal To Bitcoin, noted that a Trump win might encourage the U.S. government to hold Bitcoin, leading wealth managers to consider it a viable asset.
“This confidence could fuel investments in Bitcoin funds, lifting demand and market value,” Duggirala told Quartz, predicting a ripple effect as global investors follow the U.S.’s lead.
How Might Bitcoin Respond to a Harris Win?
Vice President Kamala Harris, previously hesitant to address cryptocurrencies, has recently opened up, calling for tighter regulations on the crypto market to protect consumers and ensure financial stability.
Experts predict that a Harris victory could lead to an initial drop in Bitcoin prices, followed by a potential recovery later on. Duggirala explained that Harris’s approach would likely align with the current administration’s policies—emphasizing fiscal spending and stricter oversight of private capital, including crypto.
If high inflation persists alongside regulatory measures, Duggirala believes assets like Bitcoin and gold could benefit, as they offer a hedge against inflation.
“Bitcoin’s scarcity could make it a go-to asset for those aiming to protect their wealth in an inflationary environment,” he shared.
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Could a Contested Election Impact Bitcoin?
With polls showing a tight race, the chance of a contested election and subsequent legal battles looms large. This uncertainty could create a volatile environment, which historically benefits high-risk assets like Bitcoin. According to Duggirala, Bitcoin’s tendency for sharp price movements during crises could make it attractive to options traders.
Market Volatility
Duggirala recalled the March 2020 pandemic crash when Bitcoin’s value dropped nearly 50% within days, only to bounce back and hit new highs. If the election drags on with no clear winner, Bitcoin’s futures and options markets could see substantial activity, as traders attempt to capitalize on anticipated volatility.
For seasoned traders, a contested election could present a unique opportunity to leverage Bitcoin’s volatility, drawing increased global attention to the cryptocurrency market.
